Polls are now closed in Missouri, where results are starting to trickle in for the Republican gubernatorial primary and the Democratic and Republican primaries for the open seat of GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof (MO-09). We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns.
RESULTS: MO-Gov (AP) | MO-09 (AP)
11:41PM: The AP has called the GOP nod for MO-Gov for Hulshof, and MO-09 for Luetkemeyer.
11:35PM: With 90% in, Baker has surged to a 42-33 lead over Gaw. This one is done.
11:22PM: 81% in, and Baker still leads by 41-37. Hulshof is still five points ahead of Steelman with 87% in.
11:14PM: 78% in, and Baker leads by 41-37 with significant votes in Boone still outstanding. Hulshof is still holding tight.
11:05PM: With 67% in, Baker is still up by 41-38 and exactly 1000 votes. 64 precincts are still out in Boone. Hulshof is holding steady at 49-45 with 84% of the vote in.
10:56PM: Anyone who wants the county-by-county breakdowns for the MO-09 race can find them here. With 64% in, it’s 41-38 Baker. Two thirds of Boone County’s precincts are not counted yet. With 78% reporting in the gubernatorial race, Hulshof leads Steelman by 49-45.
10:42PM: With 62% of the vote in, Baker leads Gaw by 40-38. Hulshof leads Steelman by 49-44 still with 58% in.
10:23PM: With 51% of the vote in, Baker has pulled ahead of Gaw by 40-37. With no precincts in Boone County (Columbia) reporting yet, Baker is poised for a surge. Luetkey has surged to a 43-25 lead over Onder. In MO-Gov, Hulshof has a 49-44 lead with 45% reporting.
10:00PM: Gaw leads Baker by 39-36 with 23% in. Over in Wingnutville, Luetkemeyer leads Onder by 38-37. In the gubernatorial race, Hulshof has pulled ahead to a 50-43 lead with 20% reporting.
9:44PM: With 18% in, Gaw leads Baker by 39-35, while Luetkemeyer is ahead of Onder by 40-35. In MO-Gov, Hulshof leads Steelman by 48-46 with 14% in.
9:26PM (David): Finally, some more votes are in. Luetkemeyer is leading Onder 40-32 with 6% in. (Sadly, netroots fave Brock Olivo has just 8%.) On our side, Gaw leads Baker 41-39. And Hulshof leads Steelman 48-44.
8:53PM (David): In very early returns (fewer than 1% of precincts reporting), Hulshof has a 48-40 lead over Steelman. Luetkemeyer and Baker are also both up big, but again, very few votes have been tallied.
I suspect Baker is going to win easily, but I hope I am wrong as I think Gaw would be a much better general election candidate.
Looks like Olivo-mentum didn’t catch on in MO-09. Guess the GOP will have to settle for someone who might not have taken social studies.
Baker won’t win…I’m not worried…if she did however, forget the DCCC spending money here. She is not as strong as Gaw.
Looks like it’s going to be a close one on our side. Either of them can win the general with the DCCC money and a bit of fundraising of their own.
MO-GOV is closer than I expected. I thought I saw a poll with Hulshof holding a bid lead.
I really hope it was, because you aren’t making sense.
I think that in the Leutkemeyer vs. Onder contest, the loser will be demanding a recount. The margin of separation has just been too close all night..Good news for Steve Gaw and Democrats.
A recount may also occur in the Jenkins vs. Ryun contest, yet I expect Ryun to win narrowly.
Turnout on our side for the MO-9 primary looks to be outpacing the GOP by a 4-3 advantage. Given the conservative lean of the district, our chances here look very good.
Up 39-35% over Onder now with 25% of precincts in.
With 25% of precincts in for MO-09 Dem turnout looks to be trouncing repub turnout. Though it could be that there are many blue dogs in the district boting dem here and republican in the general.
The DCCC has already announced that the winner of the MO-09 primary will be on the Red to Blue list, and receive plenty of funding: http://blogs.columbiatribune.c…
I don’t have a dog in the Baker-Gaw race, I think they’d both be good congresspersons.
have told me Baker is the stronger candidate because she is raising more money and running a better campaign. Not to mention, they state Gaw’s disastorous 2000 campaign for Secretary of State, where he lost to Matt Blunt in a good Democratic year, the only statewide Democrat to lose that year. He even lost his home district, (while Blunt is from the other end of the state), so, if he couldn’t win it there against a green, 29 year old politician, what makes you so sure he’s the stronger candidate? Anyway, the DCCC has already reserved 600,000 in ad time here.
He’s up 16 points now with 44% of precincts in. Figured this one wouldn’t be close.
Onder would be the weaker opponent for Gaw, our Democratic nominee, at the end of the night. However, I guess Boone County starting come in, and Onder has fallen behind.
You’re right…I’m surprised too, but do you notice the split between the east and west of the state. Eastern part going for Hulshof and western part for Steelman. It’s so amazing. I’d hate to be a Republican (other than in Utah).
Not sure where the votes remain, but Baker has a 3% lead (40-37) with 44% of precincts in, as well.
if the race in MO-09 (and, for that matter, in MI-13) is plurality wins or if there will be a runoff between Baker and Gaw?
Appreciate the 4-1-1.
Only southern states (except Tennessee) use the runoff.
but I think she would have a chance, with the lack of a quality Republican candidate. Gaw does look impressive and I like the geography situation, so if I was voting I probably would have gone with that given their fairy equal qualifications.
you’re prediction certainly influenced peoples votes. Please tune down the pomposity a little.
U.S. REPRESENTATIVE 9TH DISTRICT
(VOTE FOR ) 1
(WITH 26 OF 90 PRECINCTS COUNTED 28.89%)
STEVE GAW 457 11.75
JUDY BAKER 2,648 68.09
LYNDON BODE 70 1.80
KEN JACOB 714 18.36
Seems to be a significant number of the remaining votes and Baker is winning it big.
I’m going to call the race early: Steelman WINS. Hulshof has only carried his own congressional district and Jo Ann Emerson’s. He’s barely carrying Graves district. Kansas City has yet to report (more favorable to Steelman). I guess it sucks being Hulshof tonight.
Could this be a sign that Missouri is turning less conservative (Talent defeated, Hulshof defeated). Could this possibly be the next Red to Blue state, following gains in CO, MT, NH, and VA?
I’ve heard it said that while Baker is pretty liberal, she’s also a populist churchgoing type and comes across as being very palatable for rural folks. Her profile sounds like someone who could definately in in a year like this one. Not sure if she could hold the seat in the future though.
STLtoday has counted the Boone votes yet. Depending on whether they have or not, it would affect everything.
Luetkmeyer is still up big and Baker/Gaw is close (41-38) with 64% reporting.
U.S. REPRESENTATIVE 9TH DISTRICT
(VOTE FOR ) 1
STEVE GAW 936 11.84
JUDY BAKER 5,387 68.12
LYNDON BODE. 119 1.50
KEN JACOB . 1,466 18.54
Total 7,908
Doesn’t say how many precincts are in but if it’s complete, then Baker will gain another 2,000 votes from Boone. Seems like a big gap for Gaw to close.
http://www.showmeboone.com/CLERK/
Number of Precincts 52
Precincts Reporting 48 92.3 %
Total Votes 4647
STEVE GAW 1653 35.57%
JUDY BAKER 2118 45.58%
LYNDON BODE 310 6.67%
KEN JACOB 566 12.18%
http://www.franklinmo.org/
The runoff is mostly a Southern concept. Not utilized much outside the South.
Feelin’ pretty good about my prediction.
Baker is going to pick up several thousand votes from at least 101 of the 140 remaining precincts from Franklin and Boone numbers reported on their county websites.
I can’t get my mind over it. I like runoffs, I think they’re are neccessary, especially in split fields. It makes sure the end candidate got a majority of voters.
He had a 13k lead for some time, now 16k.
Looks like the winner is Luetkemeyer on the GOP side. Ours is still too close to call but Baker is looking good. I’m hoping for her!
Also looks like Nixon vs Hulshof which is too bad beacuse I think that will hurt out chances some in the 9th. But I still think we can win both races.
antoni?
If you say Judy Baker loses the general, I’ll take that as a good sign.
Anyway, if you weren’t so damn smug and irritation, people might not delight when you’re proven wrong.
I just posted the Boone votes in a comment at the bottom of this thread. There are still 64 precincts to come from Boone.
http://www.showmeboone.com/CLERK/
Baker is NOT electable in a conservative district. The DCCC is not wasting a single cent here.
Gaw, Steve DEM 14,787 33.4%
Baker, Judy DEM 18,448 41.6%
411/455 Precincts Reporting
and we’d have a much better chance with a conservative candidate, but Antoni’s ultraconfident predictions that Gaw and Steelman would win their primaries are a little funny in retrospect.
What’s changed in the past 24 hours that would make it solid Republican?
The 9th has 25 counties. Gaw is winning 8 of them, Baker is winning 15 of them. Now that Franklin has mostly reported (and Baker has kept her advantage), there are 101 outstanding precincts, 64 of which are in Boone County.
As I’ve said before, I don’t have a preference for either Baker or Gaw, I couldn’t tell them apart if I’d tried.
Finally, as to the last statement, I understand you’re a “moderate” Democrat and not a “liberal”, but firstly I’d say that’s a hasty generalization. I’d also respectfully submit that Baker, the “liberal” that she is, would still suit your views better than either Onder or Luetkemeyer, but perhaps I’m wrong.
It’s a very conservative district, only Emerson’s district is more conservative. Judy Baker hails from Columbia, the only Democratic stronghold here and it is a liberal city due to the Univ. of Missouri. Obama will win Boone County, yet he will not win the district. Baker is a liberal to moderate candidate. If she was conservative she never would have been elected in Columbia. It’s reality. Leutkemeyer is an ultra-conservative. While I would prefer Baker over Leutkemeyer, the reality is that voters here are conservative. Gaw ran as a Blue Dog Democrat, even favoring oil drilling. If Baker even considered such a position she would alienate her base in Columbia.
Sure the DCCC said it would spend here and more races nationwide, yet the current changes. Remember that Bean, McNerney, Shuler, Ellsworth, Hall, Space, and Courtney were all considered targets by Republicans, yet they are all looking safe. Now Democrats will have a more competitive opponent against Boyda, if Ryun loses. In addition, Mahoney is a close race, yet a brutal Republican primary is on the horizon. Lampson, Carney, and Shea-Porter are in trouble. Democrats have newer targets and competitive open seats this year than in 2006 (Diaz-Balart’s, Graves, etc.).
Furthermore, Democrats are in a winning position for several open seats (Walsh, Fossella, McCrery, Saxton, Ferguson, etc.). Democrats are also favored to knock off incumbents (Feeney, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Walberg, Porter, etc.). If we are going to be serious about winning more seats then the DCCC would be more sensible in utilizing the funds in winnable districts (Keller, Schmidt, Kirk, Latham, Graves, etc).
And even if some are offended that I called this race NON-WINNABLE..look at reality…there are several more winnable races nationwide. Judy Baker can only hope for a miracle and even that will be an uphill climb. Tonight ideology won over electability. However, most primary voters do vote based on ideology (case in point: Lamont vs. Lieberman). In the end, Lieberman won every congressional district in the general election, including the more liberal New Haven based district represented by DeLauro.
Go Baker! Kick dude-with-long-last-name’s ass in November!
make that smug and irritating.
antoni says above “Baker is guaranteed to LOSE.”
I guess it means she wins!
I’d say its just conservative. We have Dem’s in much redder districts so it can be done. Baker looks like a strong campaigner so she still has a shot in my opinion.
Also we don’t know exactly what the demographics will be in the district till the election in November. The district itself may have even dropped a little to R+6
I think Baker was the better and more electable of the two and I am thrilled that she won!
It’s going to be a great November election and WE WILL WIN!
If you would like to donate to Judy Baker donate here at my site and I will match you.
http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…
MO-09…going blue!!!!!
I wasn’t here for it, but thank God the rest of you were to call out this nonsense. Declaring Gaw and Steelman winners early, only turning out to be wrong on both counts, then going on to talk about how MO-09 is a Safe Republican seat, after his own predictions declared it “Leans Republican” just yesterday… On top of all this, “You liberal bloggers think this, you liberal bloggers all think that.” nonsense. People voted today for a reason, and nobody needs to tell me what I think and why. How far does Antoni’s head need to get up his ass before he realizes where it went?
Missouri-09*** (R+7) (R2B)
Judy Baker v. Blaine Luetkemeyer
Total Raised — $401,000 v. $467,000
Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $141,000
Baker has outfundraised Luetkemeyer thus far, since he boosted himself with a $325,000 loan. Baker’s addition to Red 2 Blue will keep her raising 250K+ a quarter. A feat Luetkemeyer has yet to achieve.
DCCC v. NRCC (As of June 30th)
Cash On Hand – $54,700,000 v. $8,500,000
The DCCC’s COH has grown over the past few reporting periods. They will have money to spend here, period.
First thing I notice on Blaine’s website, his ad all about the economy says “9 trillion in debt to countries like China” – My first thought was, “The majority of America’s debt is owed to Americans. Is he trying to say America is like China? Or does he just not know what he’s talking about?” For someone who is running on the economy, that’s a pretty big flub.